The 16th Man

Let’s get one thing out of the way - this Sunday, it is impossible for me to be impartial. Even if I try to force myself to see things from a neutral point of view, my lifelong support for the Mourne county skews my judgment and prohibits me doing anything other than siding (ever so slightly) in favour of James McCartan and his charges.

In that respect it may come as some surprise to know that I am tipping Down to overcome Kildare to reach their first All-Ireland final since their last triumph in 1994.

Down’s record in finals is famously perfect, having never tasted defeat on five previous occasions. Their record at the semi-final stage is less impressive. Down have featured in 12 previous semi-finals, winning only five. Those budding mathematicians of you out there will already have worked out that Down therefore have lost more semi-finals than they have won, seven losses to the five victories outlined in the previous sentence.

Kildare have a similar numeric record in reaching the semis, albeit one that is a lot less modern. The Lilywhites have reached the penultimate hurdle on thirteen occasions, though all but two of those pre-date 1956. Kildare reached the final in 1998 only to be beaten by Galway and were eliminated by the same team at the semi-final stage again in 2000.

It makes trying to call this game incredibly difficult, especially given that the sides have never met in the championship before.  They did meet earlier in the year in the first game of Division Two in the National League. Down cantered to an easy win in Newbridge but the Kildare team that took to the field that day bears little resemblance to the side that will start on Sunday.
So what is it about Kildare that I think makes Down slight favourites? Well, in truth, it’s the very same reason that some people are backing the Lilywhite to beat Down – the quarter-final win over Meath.

There’s no denying that Kildare finished the game impressively to knock the Leinster champions out of the All-Ireland series. Johnny Doyle was particularly impressive and James Kavanagh and Eoin O’Flaherty prove that the Lilywhites have plenty of firepower in the forward line.  Now here comes the but….

The fact is that Meath were grossly overrated. Lest we forget, they practically stole the Leinster crown from Louth, who are hardly a team of world beaters. Incidentally, people forget that the wee county also eliminated Kildare from Leinster. A mere digression. The Royals may have emphatically put away the Dubs but Pat Gilroy’s revolution was in its infancy then and, in fact, probably needed a result like the Meath one to kick-start the movement.

It just means that while Kildare have steadily improved throughout the qualifiers they haven’t faced the same quality of opposition as Down have so far.

Since bowing out of Leinster, McGeeney’s charges have beaten Antrim -where a replay was required, lowly Leitrim, Derry - a county whose in-fighting does more to defeat itself than any opponent could, Monaghan - a team who imploded after an embarrassing Ulster final defeat and finally Meath, on whom I’ve made my feelings abundantly clear.

The fact that Kildare are perennially slow-starters this season where Down have been quick out of the blocks may also leave them with too much of an uphill battle to climb on the basis that Down are unlikely to yield quite as easily as Meath did before them.

There are positives for Kildare and one in particular is their manager, Kieran McGeeney. Geezer, as he is irritatingly known, is one of the most focussed, determined and physically fit men to have graced any gaelic football field and he has instilled similar qualities in this Kildare side. As evidence of that, en route to the semi-finals Kildare have not given in easily and as well as having big physical players they have displayed real tactical know-how and have competent ball-winners in their midst.

To my mind, they just haven’t met a team with the same quality forwards that Down possess. The Mourne men have also met tougher opposition this year.  Down slumped to a disappointing defeat to Tyrone in the Ulster semi-final, though had Down taken two gilt-edged goal opportunities the game could have been oh-so different. Importantly they were able to learn from that defeat and were able to beat champions Kerry, albeit without an O’Sé and Galvin present.

Still, the fact remains, Down have had more stringent tests than Kildare en route to this game and they will doubtlessly have benefitted from that. The Achilles heel of a decidedly dodgy defence that has plagued Down in recent years has been rectified by James McCartan this year with a change in personnel and system.

Add to that a forward line full of attacking intent with the likes of Marty Clarke, Benny Coulter, Danny Hughes and Paul McComiskey and there is a sense that Down will provide the stiffest test that the Kildare defence has faced had all year. That may be enough to tip things in Down’s favour. Not that I am biased…..C’mon Down!!!

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